讲座题目：Build up a Metropolis: Evidence from the Spatial Development of Shanghai 建设大都市：来自上海空间发展的证据

主讲人：张庆华 教授 北京大学光华管理学院

时间：4月27日周四10:00

地点：经管院B444

讲座内容摘要：

This paper develops a quantitative model of internal urban structure that incorporates both agglomeration economies and endogenous commuting congestion to study the effects of land use regulations on the spatial organization of economic activities and welfare within a city. Using a newly constructed spatially disaggregated data set for Shanghai, we estimate and calibrate the model. We show that the model-predicted equilibrium outcomes can fit the current data better than the predictions from an alternative model that does not consider the congestion effect. We carry out counterfactual analyses to evaluate various land development strategies for Shanghai.We note two sets of main findings.First, without adding any new floor space, re-allocating the current floor space according to the values of local amenities can generate large welfare gains, which is 14.6%, relative to the initial level. This suggests that when making land use regulations, it is sensible for the government to better match floor space supply to potential house demand driven by local amenities across different localities within a city. Second, according to Shanghai's 2017-2035 Master Plan, by 2035, the whole city will increase 270 million square meters of floor space supply. Regarding where to build up Shanghai in the future, our counterfactual experiments show that: 1) if we focus on developing certain localities of the city and build all the new floor space there, the welfare gains are higher than spreading out the new floor space all over the city. 2) Decentralized development works better than the centralized one for Shanghai. If we decentralize the new floor space to the government-specified sub-centers, we can get a welfare gain of 12.3%, better than developing the current core urban area (i.e., the 35 streets near the city center).

本文建立了城市内部结构的定量模型，该模型结合了集聚经济和内生通勤拥堵，以研究土地使用法规对城市内经济活动和福利空间组织的影响。使用新构建的上海空间分解数据集，我们对模型进行了估计和校准。我们表明，模型预测的均衡结果可以更好地拟合当前数据，而不是不考虑拥堵效应的替代模型的预测。我们进行反事实分析，以评估上海的各种土地开发策略。我们注意到两组主要调查结果。首先，在不增加任何新的建筑面积的情况下，根据当地设施的价值重新分配当前的建筑面积可以产生巨大的福利收益，相对于初始水平，这是14.6%。这表明，在制定土地使用法规时，政府明智的做法是更好地将建筑面积供应与城市内不同地区的当地便利设施驱动的潜在房屋需求相匹配。其次，根据上海2017-2035年总体规划，到2035年，全市将增加建筑面积供应2.7亿平方米。关于未来上海建设方向，我们的反事实实验表明：1）如果我们专注于开发城市的某些地方并在那里建造所有新的建筑空间，那么福利收益高于在整个城市中散布新的建筑面积。2）分散式开发比上海的集中式开发效果更好。如果我们将新的建筑面积下放到政府指定的副中心，我们可以获得12.3%的福利收益，比开发当前的核心城区（即市中心附近的35条街道）要好。

主讲人简介：

张庆华，现任北京大学光华管理学院应用经济系教授，博士生导师。她本科就读于44118太阳成城集团经济学院世界经济系，后在美国布朗大学获得经济学博士学位。她曾在伦敦政治经济学院和美国德克萨斯州立大学奥斯汀分校访问。2017, 2006, 2005和2004年间曾担任世界银行短期经济顾问。张庆华博士的主要研究兴趣包括城市经济学，公共财政，以及搜索与匹配。她在这些领域做出了出色的研究成果,她的多篇论文发表在Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Public Economics，Journal of Urabn Economics，Journal of Economerics，Rand Journal of Economics, Journal of Development Economics等国际权威学术期刊上。她曾获得教育部全国高等学校科研优秀成果一等奖(人文社科类)、世界华人不动产协会最佳论文奖,北京大学工商银行经济学优秀学者奖等多项奖励。她目前是Journal of Urban Economics编委。